Who Will Be the Next Dalai Lama – and How Will They Be Chosen?🕉️

The Future of the Dalai Lama: Who Will Choose His Successor?🕉️

The Dalai Lama confirmed on Wednesday that there will be a successor to continue his role as the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhists. This announcement came amid celebrations marking his 90th birthday.

In his statement, he said leaders of Tibet’s spiritual traditions, members of the Tibetan parliament and government-in-exile in Dharamshala, and Buddhists worldwide – including those in mainland China and Tibet – had urged him to ensure the institution continues.

“In accordance with all these requests, I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,” he declared.

Buddhist scholars and monks from around the world gathered in McLeodganj, Dharamshala – often called “Little Lhasa” – for his birthday and a three-day religious conference he will preside over. However, beyond religious significance, the question of who will choose the next Dalai Lama carries deep geopolitical weight.

How is the Dalai Lama traditionally chosen?🔮

The Dalai Lama is believed to be the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion. After the death of a Dalai Lama, high-ranking lamas form a search committee. They interpret spiritual signs, consult oracles, and search for young boys born around the time of the previous Dalai Lama’s death. Candidates must pass tests to confirm their identity, including recognising objects belonging to the previous Dalai Lama. Traditionally, the child then undergoes rigorous training in Buddhist philosophy and leadership.

While all Dalai Lamas so far have been men, the current Dalai Lama has said there is no reason why his next incarnation cannot be a woman.

Who is the current Dalai Lama?🧘

Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama, was born Lhamo Dhondup on July 6, 1935, in what is now Qinghai province. Identified as the reincarnation at age two, he confirmed his identity by recognising his predecessor’s belongings. In 1959, after a failed uprising against Chinese rule, he fled Tibet, crossing into India on March 31. Today, about 100,000 Tibetan refugees live in India.

What has he said about his successor?💬

Speaking in McLeodganj on June 30, the Dalai Lama said, “As far as the institution of the Dalai Lama is concerned, there will be a framework for it to continue.” He emphasised feeling physically healthy at 90 and committed to serving people and the Dharma.

He also hinted that his reincarnation will not be in China, stating in his recent book Voice for the Voiceless that “the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world.” He has previously suggested India as a potential birthplace.

Was there a chance there would be no successor❓

In the past, the Dalai Lama suggested the institution might end with him. In 2011, he said he would decide its future at 90, and in 2014 stated that whether there is another Dalai Lama would depend on circumstances, adding, “There is no guarantee that some stupid Dalai Lama won’t come next, who will disgrace himself or herself. That would be very sad.”

What is China’s position?

China insists only its government can approve the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, citing a 2007 law requiring all Tibetan Buddhist reincarnations to be approved by the state and selected through the Qing Dynasty golden urn system.

On Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that reincarnations must be approved by Beijing. The current Dalai Lama rejects this method, arguing it lacks spiritual integrity.

Has China intervened in Tibetan succession before?🕯️

In 1995, the Dalai Lama recognised Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the Panchen Lama’s reincarnation. Soon after, Chinese authorities detained the six-year-old boy and his family; their whereabouts remain unknown. Beijing appointed its own Panchen Lama candidate, rejected by many Tibetans as illegitimate.

This episode underlines Tibetan fears that Beijing might abduct any successor chosen within China, as it did with the Panchen Lama.

Could there be two Dalai Lamas?⚖️ 

Scholars believe it is highly likely there will be two rival Dalai Lamas after the current one’s death: one appointed by exiled lamas, and another by Beijing. While Tibetans in exile may dismiss China’s choice, Tibetans inside Tibet may face immense pressure to accept the state-approved figure.

Why does this matter geopolitically?🌏

For India, hosting the Tibetan government-in-exile is both a moral and strategic stance amid its tense border relationship with China. The US, too, has long supported Tibetan autonomy, including legislating the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA) in 2020, which affirms the Dalai Lama’s right to choose his reincarnation without Chinese interference.

The bottom line📝

The question of who will be the next Dalai Lama is not only about religious succession but is deeply tied to geopolitical rivalries between China, India, and the US. While the Dalai Lama has confirmed there will be a successor, who chooses him – and where he is born – could shape the future of Tibetan Buddhism, regional stability, and the legitimacy of the Tibetan struggle for generations to come.