Back at the Table: US and China Talk Again Without a Full Reset 🤝

Fragile Progress in US-China Trade Talks: No Reset, Just a Pause🌐

Recent trade negotiations between the United States and China in London represent a cautious effort to ease tensions rather than signal a fresh start. The outcome reflects a short-term strategy aimed at preventing further deterioration — a fragile truce that could unravel at any time.

National Security at the Core🔐

At the heart of the issue lies national security. Both nations increasingly view trade through a security-focused lens. Handshakes and temporary agreements cannot resolve such deeply rooted concerns.

Washington must acknowledge that Beijing demands mutual respect and will reject any one-sided, long-term deals. Conversely, China must accept that business as usual is no longer viable and that the U.S. expects more transparency, market access, and concessions.

Lessons from Geneva and a New Framework⚖️

While the London talks offer a glimmer of hope, past experiences urge caution. A similar ceasefire reached in Geneva in May quickly gave way to renewed accusations. Both sides blamed each other for backing out of a deal to lower tariffs, which had climbed above 100%.

Now, after nearly 20 hours of discussions, negotiators say they’ve reached an “agreement in principle” based on the Geneva consensus. Delegations will present the proposal to their respective leaders.

“Once the presidents approve it, we will then seek to implement it,” said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. While full details are still under wraps, U.S. officials expect progress on issues like rare earth mineral exports and magnet shipments.

No Clear Winners, Just Strategic Stalemate🤝

Still, there are no clear winners. As Steve Okun, CEO of AC Advisors, notes: “The Trump administration must decide whether it sees Beijing as a competitor or an existential threat.”

He adds, “Economically, Washington holds more leverage, but politically, Xi Jinping can endure the impact longer than Trump can.”

Xi Jinping’s Long Game📉

Despite economic challenges, Xi is playing the long game. Data shows a sharp drop in U.S.-bound shipments — the worst since February 2020. However, growing demand from other markets has helped cushion the blow to China’s deflation-prone economy.

China’s Narrative and Global Cooperation Concerns📢

China continues to frame the conflict as America’s doing. A recent Xinhua commentary criticized Washington’s security-focused trade stance, warning that it could undermine global cooperation.

The Case for Compromise🕊️

Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution suggests that peaceful coexistence is still possible — but only through mutual compromise. Both sides must accept that neither can dominate the other, and that tariffs alone will not lead to submission.

🇺🇸 U.S. Public Opinion: Stability Over Conflict

American sentiment remains focused on avoiding open conflict with China. While disapproval of Beijing’s actions is high, most Americans want to manage competition without triggering war.

Understanding 'Mianzi' and Diplomatic Leeway🧠

The U.S. must recognize the Chinese cultural principle of mianzi (face). Xi Jinping will only accept a deal he can sell as a win. China views the previous trade agreement as one-sided and won’t repeat that mistake.

Beijing, in turn, should provide Trump some diplomatic leeway. While his tariff policies have been aggressive, his base demands toughness — something China understands well in the context of internal political pressures.

Progress, Not a Reset📉

Neither country has the upper hand. The London discussions may have created just enough momentum to ease hostilities and foster a less confrontational path forward. That alone is progress — but it's far too soon to call this a reset.